Free Spin Dice
- Appendices
- Craps Analysis
- Miscellaneous
Free Spin Dice 2
Introduction
One of the most frequently asked questions I get, and certainly the most frequent about craps, is whether dice setting is for real. Publicly until now I said I never saw enough evidence either way and had no position. Privately I was more skeptical. However in May 2004 Stanford Wong, whom I have enormous respect for, attended a 4-day seminar on dice setting and as a result reversed his position and gave what I think could be said is an endorsement. Shortly afterward I saw him at a social function and asked him about it. He obviously did believe that some people can influence the dice but that is was very difficult and something few have mastered.
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Wong's comments inspired me to take dice setting more seriously. I had previously been in communication with Frank Scoblete and Larry Edell on the subject, suggesting that I be allowed to observe some top dice setters for myself. Both were agreeable but due to scheduling problems nothing ever came of it. Until recently I also lived within about one mile of dice coach Beau Parker so there was no good reason to keep avoiding the experiment. So after playing phone tag we finally met on July 22 with three other dice setters at the Bellagio.
Before starting Beau explained that dice setters are not able to control every single throw but only influence the dice towards certain numbers. At a 3-4-5x odds table the house edge is only 0.374% so it only takes a slight influence of the dice to overcome that house advantage. However a slight influence could take thousands of rolls to become obvious over the normal randomness of the game. So we both agreed one session was unlikely to prove anything.
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As I emphasize on the topic of Internet casino cheating the proper way to make a case for a non-random game is to set up a hypothesis first, then gather data, and then statistically test the data for how well it fits the hypothesis. So I asked Beau what I should be testing for. He said on the come out roll that I should test for winning rolls of 7 and 11, and on all other rolls to test for rolling anything except a 7. Following are the specific results. Each come out roll begins a line.
Parker Experiment Results
| Date | Casino | Shooter | Rolls |
| July 22, 2004 | Bellagio | Beau | 7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Bellagio | Beau | 2 |
| July 22, 2004 | Bellagio | Beau | 6,8,6 |
| July 22, 2004 | Bellagio | Beau | 8,7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Bellagio | Debbie | 11 |
| July 22, 2004 | Bellagio | Debbie | 2 |
| July 22, 2004 | Bellagio | Debbie | 6,10,5,9,3,3,12,5,9,5,8,6 |
| July 22, 2004 | Bellagio | Debbie | 11 |
| July 22, 2004 | Bellagio | Debbie | 10,7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Bellagio | Pablo | 7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Bellagio | Pablo | 7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Bellagio | Pablo | 5,7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Bellagio | Michael | 10,7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Bellagio | Beau | 4,7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Bellagio | Debbie | 6,3,4,7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Bellagio | Pablo | 9,2,4,6,8,4,2,10,5,8,5,5,11,8,6,2,8,7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Bellagio | Michael | 11 |
| July 22, 2004 | Bellagio | Michael | 7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Bellagio | Michael | 4,6,7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Westin | Beau | 6,7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Westin | Debbie | 8,11,6,6,9,4,10,6,6,7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Westin | Michael | 6,6 |
| July 22, 2004 | Westin | Michael | 5,4,5 |
| July 22, 2004 | Westin | Michael | 4,5,12,4 |
| July 22, 2004 | Westin | Michael | 9,7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Westin | Beau | 7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Westin | Beau | 7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Westin | Beau | 9,6,5,8,9 |
| July 22, 2004 | Westin | Beau | 6,11,4,3,7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Westin | Debbie | 7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Westin | Debbie | 5,6,3,11,6,6,5 |
| July 22, 2004 | Westin | Debbie | 12 |
| July 22, 2004 | Westin | Debbie | 11 |
| July 22, 2004 | Westin | Debbie | 5,9,8,4,8,11,5 |
| July 22, 2004 | Westin | Debbie | 7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Westin | Debbie | 6,7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Westin | Michael | 10,7 |
The next table summarizes the results. The sample size is too small to perform any robust tests. However just an eyeball test shows the results are thus far close to expectations in a random game. So clearly more testing needs to be done, and is planned for.
Parker Experiment Summary
| Event | Number |
| Come out rolls | 37 |
| Come out wins (7 or 11) | 11 |
| Expected come out wins (7 or 11) | 8.22 |
| Non-come out rolls | 79 |
| Non-come out win (non-7) | 65 |
| Expected non-come out win (non-7) | 65.83 |
Stanford Wong Experiment
In August 2004 debate was raging at Stanford Wong's site bj21.com about dice setting. The discussion could be found under the member's only Green Chip section on craps. A professional gambler there challenged Wong to a bet. The terms of the bet were whether precision shooters could roll fewer than 79.5 sevens in 500 rolls of the dice. The expected number in a random game would be 83.33. The probability of rolling 79 or fewer sevens in 500 random rolls is 32.66%.
I was asked to be a monitor for the event, but was out of the country at the time. However I did make an $1800 bet on the over with a well known gambling writer. The dates and locations of the event were kept very quiet, and were not being made available to the public. The shooters were Wong himself and someone known only as 'Little Joe.' According to Wong, the experiment went well and not one roll was called dead nor disputed by the two sides of the bet present at the event. The following table shows the results by shooter.
Wong Experiment Results
| Shooter | Total Rolls | Total Sevens | Percent Sevens |
| Wong | 278 | 45 | 16.19% |
| Little Joe | 222 | 29 | 13.06% |
| Total | 500 | 74 | 14.80% |
Congratulations to Wong on winning with five sevens to spare. The probability of rolling 74 or fewer sevens in 500 random rolls is 14.41%.
Internal Links
- How the house edge for each bet is derived, in brief.
- The house edge of all the major bets on both a per-bet made and per-roll basis
- Dice Control Experiments. The results of two experiments on skillful dice throwing.
- Dice Control Advantage. The player advantage, assuming he can influence the dice.
- Craps variants. Alternative rules and bets such as the Fire Bet, Crapless Craps, and Card Craps.
- California craps. How craps is played in California using playing cards.
- Play Craps. Craps game using cards at the Viejas casino in San Diego.
- Number of Rolls Table. Probability of a shooter lasting 1 to 200 rolls before a seven-out.
- Ask the Wizard. See craps questions I've answered about:
- Simple Craps game. My simple Java craps game.
Written by: Michael Shackleford
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